# Table 5: Bilateral Gravity — Safe Asset Seeking

## Model Summary

| Model | Dep Var | N | Pairs | R² | ρ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1a: baseline gravity | log_portfolio_debt | 83,273 | 6,919 | 0.187 | 0.939 |
| M1b: + dest_safe | log_portfolio_debt | 83,273 | 6,919 | 0.209 | 0.937 |
| M2a: dZ×dest_safe → debt | log_portfolio_debt | 83,273 | 6,919 | 0.224 | 0.935 |
| M2b: dZ×dest_safe → equity | log_portfolio_equity | 73,285 | 5,802 | 0.203 | 0.951 |
| M2c: dZ×dest_safe → total | log_portfolio_total | 100,837 | 7,760 | 0.246 | 0.942 |
| M3: triple dZ×KA×safe | log_portfolio_debt | 76,376 | 6,593 | 0.245 | 0.930 |
| M4: Z_i×dest_safe → debt | log_portfolio_debt | 83,273 | 6,919 | 0.276 | 0.928 |
| M5a: excl FC | log_portfolio_debt | 59,585 | 5,109 | 0.321 | 0.919 |
| M5b: OECD origin | log_portfolio_debt | 57,838 | 4,055 | 0.255 | 0.941 |
| M5c: non-OECD origin | log_portfolio_debt | 25,435 | 2,864 | 0.177 | 0.904 |
| M5d: + rate_diff control | log_portfolio_debt | 11,002 | 505 | 0.464 | 0.879 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1a: baseline gravity | dZ_1 | 2.7573 | 0.6695 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M1a: baseline gravity | dZ_2 | -0.3866 | 0.0946 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M1a: baseline gravity | dZ_3 | 0.0151 | 0.0037 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M1b: + dest_safe | dZ_1 | 3.2075 | 0.6644 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M1b: + dest_safe | dZ_2 | -0.4368 | 0.0939 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M1b: + dest_safe | dZ_3 | 0.0169 | 0.0037 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M1b: + dest_safe | dest_safe | 0.5143 | 0.0430 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M2a: dZ×dest_safe → debt | dZ_1 | 1.8845 | 0.7791 | 0.0156 | ** |
| M2a: dZ×dest_safe → debt | dZ_2 | -0.2938 | 0.1098 | 0.0074 | *** |
| M2a: dZ×dest_safe → debt | dZ_3 | 0.0124 | 0.0043 | 0.0036 | *** |
| M2a: dZ×dest_safe → debt | dest_safe | 0.6126 | 0.0438 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M2a: dZ×dest_safe → debt | dZ_1_x_dest_safe | 5.3576 | 1.1149 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M2a: dZ×dest_safe → debt | dZ_2_x_dest_safe | -0.5492 | 0.1558 | 0.0004 | *** |
| M2a: dZ×dest_safe → debt | dZ_3_x_dest_safe | 0.0166 | 0.0061 | 0.0061 | *** |
| M2b: dZ×dest_safe → equity | dZ_1 | 0.4893 | 1.0254 | 0.6332 |  |
| M2b: dZ×dest_safe → equity | dZ_2 | -0.0113 | 0.1444 | 0.9377 |  |
| M2b: dZ×dest_safe → equity | dZ_3 | -0.0009 | 0.0056 | 0.8740 |  |
| M2b: dZ×dest_safe → equity | dest_safe | 0.5596 | 0.0506 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M2b: dZ×dest_safe → equity | dZ_1_x_dest_safe | 3.0661 | 1.3277 | 0.0209 | ** |
| M2b: dZ×dest_safe → equity | dZ_2_x_dest_safe | -0.3565 | 0.1846 | 0.0534 | * |
| M2b: dZ×dest_safe → equity | dZ_3_x_dest_safe | 0.0123 | 0.0071 | 0.0847 | * |
| M2c: dZ×dest_safe → total | dZ_1 | 0.1508 | 0.7617 | 0.8430 |  |
| M2c: dZ×dest_safe → total | dZ_2 | -0.0577 | 0.1077 | 0.5919 |  |
| M2c: dZ×dest_safe → total | dZ_3 | 0.0035 | 0.0042 | 0.3987 |  |
| M2c: dZ×dest_safe → total | dest_safe | 0.6648 | 0.0436 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M2c: dZ×dest_safe → total | dZ_1_x_dest_safe | 6.0088 | 1.0883 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M2c: dZ×dest_safe → total | dZ_2_x_dest_safe | -0.6699 | 0.1523 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M2c: dZ×dest_safe → total | dZ_3_x_dest_safe | 0.0217 | 0.0059 | 0.0003 | *** |
| M3: triple dZ×KA×safe | dZ_1 | 3.1072 | 0.8398 | 0.0002 | *** |
| M3: triple dZ×KA×safe | dZ_2 | -0.4583 | 0.1186 | 0.0001 | *** |
| M3: triple dZ×KA×safe | dZ_3 | 0.0185 | 0.0046 | 0.0001 | *** |
| M3: triple dZ×KA×safe | dest_safe | 0.6464 | 0.0459 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M3: triple dZ×KA×safe | dZ_1_x_dest_safe | 12.1763 | 4.3702 | 0.0053 | *** |
| M3: triple dZ×KA×safe | dZ_2_x_dest_safe | -1.4016 | 0.5896 | 0.0174 | ** |
| M3: triple dZ×KA×safe | dZ_3_x_dest_safe | 0.0443 | 0.0228 | 0.0524 | * |
| M3: triple dZ×KA×safe | dZ_1_x_kaopen_dest_safe | -4.4707 | 2.0709 | 0.0309 | ** |
| M4: Z_i×dest_safe → debt | dest_safe | 0.6063 | 0.0407 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M4: Z_i×dest_safe → debt | Z_1_i | 13.6667 | 1.1773 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M4: Z_i×dest_safe → debt | Z_1_i_x_dest_safe | -1.0539 | 1.7799 | 0.5538 |  |
| M5a: excl FC | dZ_1 | 0.1645 | 0.8969 | 0.8545 |  |
| M5a: excl FC | dZ_2 | -0.1280 | 0.1249 | 0.3058 |  |
| M5a: excl FC | dZ_3 | 0.0086 | 0.0048 | 0.0758 | * |
| M5a: excl FC | dest_safe | 0.7949 | 0.0545 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M5a: excl FC | dZ_1_x_dest_safe | 8.5598 | 1.3384 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M5a: excl FC | dZ_2_x_dest_safe | -0.9473 | 0.1856 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M5a: excl FC | dZ_3_x_dest_safe | 0.0304 | 0.0072 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M5b: OECD origin | dZ_1 | -0.7971 | 1.0174 | 0.4333 |  |
| M5b: OECD origin | dZ_2 | 0.0412 | 0.1419 | 0.7713 |  |
| M5b: OECD origin | dZ_3 | 0.0002 | 0.0055 | 0.9683 |  |
| M5b: OECD origin | dest_safe | 0.4086 | 0.0548 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M5b: OECD origin | dZ_1_x_dest_safe | 7.8198 | 1.4788 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M5b: OECD origin | dZ_2_x_dest_safe | -0.8474 | 0.2047 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M5b: OECD origin | dZ_3_x_dest_safe | 0.0270 | 0.0079 | 0.0007 | *** |
| M5c: non-OECD origin | dZ_1 | 4.0848 | 1.2090 | 0.0007 | *** |
| M5c: non-OECD origin | dZ_2 | -0.4305 | 0.1736 | 0.0132 | ** |
| M5c: non-OECD origin | dZ_3 | 0.0123 | 0.0069 | 0.0742 | * |
| M5c: non-OECD origin | dest_safe | 1.0451 | 0.0883 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M5c: non-OECD origin | dZ_1_x_dest_safe | 2.1403 | 1.7563 | 0.2230 |  |
| M5c: non-OECD origin | dZ_2_x_dest_safe | -0.1888 | 0.2489 | 0.4483 |  |
| M5c: non-OECD origin | dZ_3_x_dest_safe | 0.0054 | 0.0098 | 0.5808 |  |
| M5d: + rate_diff control | dZ_1 | -2.5016 | 4.6824 | 0.5932 |  |
| M5d: + rate_diff control | dZ_2 | 0.4078 | 0.6142 | 0.5068 |  |
| M5d: + rate_diff control | dZ_3 | -0.0161 | 0.0225 | 0.4742 |  |
| M5d: + rate_diff control | dest_safe | 0.0768 | 0.0776 | 0.3221 |  |
| M5d: + rate_diff control | dZ_1_x_dest_safe | -3.9527 | 4.9817 | 0.4275 |  |
| M5d: + rate_diff control | dZ_2_x_dest_safe | 0.8012 | 0.6544 | 0.2209 |  |
| M5d: + rate_diff control | dZ_3_x_dest_safe | -0.0354 | 0.0240 | 0.1394 |  |
| M5d: + rate_diff control | rate_diff_ij | -0.0066 | 0.0051 | 0.1974 |  |

*Gravity controls: log_dist, contiguity, common_lang_official, colonial_ties, log_gdp_product.*
*PanelGLS with AR(1) correction on bilateral pairs.*
*dest_safe = destination country rated AA- or above (S&P, time-varying).*

## Debt vs Equity Safe-Seeking

| Flow Type | dZ₁×dest_safe Coef | p-value |
|-----------|---------------------|---------|
| log_portfolio_debt | 5.3576*** | 0.0000 |
| log_portfolio_equity | 3.0661** | 0.0209 |
| log_portfolio_total | 6.0088*** | 0.0000 |
| log_portfolio_debt | 12.1763*** | 0.0053 |
| log_portfolio_debt | 8.5598*** | 0.0000 |
| log_portfolio_debt | 7.8198*** | 0.0000 |
| log_portfolio_debt | 2.1403 | 0.2230 |
| log_portfolio_debt | -3.9527 | 0.4275 |